John Loar is an optimist.
At this point, the leader of Music City Baseball has to be. Five years into an effort to bring Major League Baseball to Nashville, Loar is still bullish on the market. He also remains just as bullish on the group’s idea to wrap themselves in the city’s Negro Leagues history and name the club the Nashville Stars.
But the group’s original timeline is toast. In 2019, Music City Baseball’s site stated that “our goal is to complete construction of a new baseball stadium by early 2024 and commence competition.” It was an ambitious goal, to be sure. The group even produced renderings of a baseball stadium on the East Bank adjacent to Nissan Stadium — on land they didn’t control and built with money they didn’t have. A global pandemic didn’t help things and on the East Bank, circumstances changed. Now the date floated by the group is 2030 or later.
“My original focus was that I felt like we could solve some pieces of the puzzle to potentially make this attractive to Tampa Bay for relocation,” Loar told the Banner last week. St. Petersburg is currently considering a plan to build a new stadium and keep the Rays in Florida. “If it would have been a clear cut [case of] Tampa can’t work itself out, move them to Nashville, their lease expires in 2027, ballparks gotta get ready, you know, that may have changed things quite a bit.”
At this point, the most plausible scenario for Nashville is the league expanding to 32 teams. However, an expansion bid will require many things, including billions in upfront money. Some of that would go to pay MLB’s franchise fee. And because public appetite for subsidizing a stadium is low after the Titans deal, the group would need more cash to finance a new ballpark privately. Of all of the things Music City Baseball has — including an excellent marketing machine, a rock-solid branding effort and a list of advisors that’s the envy of the city — the one thing it doesn’t possess is a billionaire to pay for it.
Most media outlets in Nashville never seem to ask this crucial question when reporting on the baseball effort: Where is the money going to come from? Music City Baseball has been looking for a general partner, aka an owner with deep pockets, for five years. Loar said securing one is a “strong priority” this year. He added that they’re looking locally, and that they’re looking at minority owners in other clubs who might want a team of their own as they continue to float the idea of potentially getting the first minority ownership in the league’s history.
There’s another glaring question here: What happens to the Nashville Sounds? There’s a contractual issue — Sounds owner Frank Ward owns the area’s territorial rights and would have to be bought out in any MLB deal. And then there’s a fairly substantial debt issue. Metro is still on the hook for roughly $80 million in principal and interest left on the bond debt that built First Horizon Park, and has a specific interest in what happens with baseball in the city.
Loar responded that he thinks the Sounds can “coexist with a Major League franchise here.” He said he also thinks it “would be ideal if [the Sounds] could be part of the system of the Nashville ownership group.” Ultimately, he said, “it’s up to Major League Baseball.”
Even if you could build a stadium downtown — maybe on the PSC Metals site that Loar advisor Lee Barfield reminded him every mayor has been trying to move for 50 years — it’s hard to envision two professional baseball facilities within a mile and a half of each other.
And then there’s the question of the market getting crowded. Since Music City Baseball launched, a 30,000-seat MLS stadium has opened at the Fairgrounds Nashville, and there are active efforts to bring an NWSL and a WNBA team to town. While those audiences don’t necessarily overlap, at some point, there is a limited number of dollars from sponsors and sports fans to go around.
But again, none of this matters without someone to write a billion-dollar check. Until that question gets answered, this effort is based on the vibes of baseball fans — especially ones in the media. Most stories continue to yada yada their way past this fact.
That hasn’t stopped Music City Baseball from moving forward, though. Loar and his group have hired commercial real estate firm Mortenson to evaluate sites, including three in Davidson County and others in Rutherford and Williamson counties. They expect the analysis to be ready in the coming months. I asked Loar if the Atlanta Braves’ success moving out of the city to Cobb County, coupled with the explosive growth south of Nashville, didn’t indicate that a suburban location was a better idea.
“It might be,” he said. Some of Mortenson’s work may help instruct that decision. “If you look at other counties and the sites that we’ve looked at and you draw concentric circles, like the Braves did when they were looking at where their fan base comes from, you know, it does make sense to look at additional counties.”
There’s a world in which Music City Baseball finds the perfect site, puts together all of the branding and community support … and the league picks another group. Despite being held in Nashville, Music City Baseball didn’t talk with Commissioner Rob Manfred at baseball’s winter meetings in December. Loar said that they haven’t spoken to the league since providing an update in 2022, and he acknowledges that his operation is being done on spec.
“Yeah, you’re 100 percent right,” Loar said of the risks they’re incurring by doing the work without any guarantee. “We think that the brand that we’ve developed over the years, and the relationship that we have with the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum is important.” And right now he’s betting a lot on the league — and some wealthy someone — feeling the same way. “You know, we think that there’s an opportunity for Major League Baseball to create history by recognizing history and connecting.”
It’s a good pitch. Loar believes it’s going to happen. But there are a couple billion reasons to be skeptical.